#ES_F Day Trading Prep For the Week 8.07-8.11
Last Week :
Surprisingly last week played out perfectly just had to be a little patient with things, last Sunday we noted that market needed either a strong push over 4615-10 and hold above or consolidate under 4603 before pushing over 4615-10 to possibly continue higher and if not the buyers who are not getting the upside here for weeks will start selling which can start triggering lower stops and if we take take out Swing Stops we can see lower Key Support at 4532-25 and Cost Basis under at 4525-4502 tested.
We did get a push over 4615 but it was done end of day Monday after consolidating over 4603 not under. We spent some time over it Tuesday Globex but failed to hold over. Tuesday RTH breaking, putting in time/volume and closing under 4603 signaled weakness and confirmation of trapped longs over 4603 as they tried to keep it over 4615 and failed, bid under 4590 was removed and we opened on the gap lower which started our trip to lower targets.
This Week :
Friday we got a nice pull back towards Supply area and found more selling which gave us the break of 4525-4502 cost basis. Going forward this might be our potential Supply area into this week as we did put in time and volume above it and failed to hold. Not only did we break 4508-02 but we also took out the minor stops just under it after hours.
Depending how we open (maybe another gap?) but if we fail to get back over 4508-02 and hold this could bring in more selling as we would be again under the Settlement, if that's the case then we can target lower targets. We have Current Support at 4487-49 but I wouldn't put too much trust in it, with some size we break it...
Under we have untested end of day Spike Base at 4465-60 and another Cost Basis under it at 4460-45, both are good targets if we see continuation. We would need to see 4445-37 break and hold under for any more downside.
IF this is size trying to get out of the market we will go through the levels like they don't matter but so far its been very mechanical because we can see how we get responses after the tests and still get pull backs to trap more supply on the way down.
For the market to go back up we would need to either bounce from 4487-79 or consolidate over it and get back over 4508-02 with good hold hold then we could see a move higher to retest our previous Key Support which we broke but that is now Supply area we would need either a strong bid or a nice consolidation under to get back over it I would think. We can look for possible quick longs from lower Supports if want to trade long as those areas usually have some buying around but over all better trades might be short this week. We take it day by day because everything can change, that's the way its set up now.
Levels to Watch :
Resistance // Current 4510-02 // Key 4532-25
If Above can target 4548-43 Stops Would need a hold above to continue
Support // Current 4487-79
Under can target 70-65-60 Cost Basis 4460-45
Key Support 4445-37 Would need to be broken for any continuation
Lower Area of interest just in case : 4422-18 // 4403-4383
Surprisingly last week played out perfectly just had to be a little patient with things, last Sunday we noted that market needed either a strong push over 4615-10 and hold above or consolidate under 4603 before pushing over 4615-10 to possibly continue higher and if not the buyers who are not getting the upside here for weeks will start selling which can start triggering lower stops and if we take take out Swing Stops we can see lower Key Support at 4532-25 and Cost Basis under at 4525-4502 tested.
We did get a push over 4615 but it was done end of day Monday after consolidating over 4603 not under. We spent some time over it Tuesday Globex but failed to hold over. Tuesday RTH breaking, putting in time/volume and closing under 4603 signaled weakness and confirmation of trapped longs over 4603 as they tried to keep it over 4615 and failed, bid under 4590 was removed and we opened on the gap lower which started our trip to lower targets.
This Week :
Friday we got a nice pull back towards Supply area and found more selling which gave us the break of 4525-4502 cost basis. Going forward this might be our potential Supply area into this week as we did put in time and volume above it and failed to hold. Not only did we break 4508-02 but we also took out the minor stops just under it after hours.
Depending how we open (maybe another gap?) but if we fail to get back over 4508-02 and hold this could bring in more selling as we would be again under the Settlement, if that's the case then we can target lower targets. We have Current Support at 4487-49 but I wouldn't put too much trust in it, with some size we break it...
Under we have untested end of day Spike Base at 4465-60 and another Cost Basis under it at 4460-45, both are good targets if we see continuation. We would need to see 4445-37 break and hold under for any more downside.
IF this is size trying to get out of the market we will go through the levels like they don't matter but so far its been very mechanical because we can see how we get responses after the tests and still get pull backs to trap more supply on the way down.
For the market to go back up we would need to either bounce from 4487-79 or consolidate over it and get back over 4508-02 with good hold hold then we could see a move higher to retest our previous Key Support which we broke but that is now Supply area we would need either a strong bid or a nice consolidation under to get back over it I would think. We can look for possible quick longs from lower Supports if want to trade long as those areas usually have some buying around but over all better trades might be short this week. We take it day by day because everything can change, that's the way its set up now.
Levels to Watch :
Resistance // Current 4510-02 // Key 4532-25
If Above can target 4548-43 Stops Would need a hold above to continue
Support // Current 4487-79
Under can target 70-65-60 Cost Basis 4460-45
Key Support 4445-37 Would need to be broken for any continuation
Lower Area of interest just in case : 4422-18 // 4403-4383
Comment:
Globex opened and pushed over 4508-02 and it acted as our Support all night, we have built up more supply over it, tried to push for Key Resistance but failed. Going into today those are are key areas to watch. If we can take out 08-02 again we can see continuation towards lower targets. Unless we fail to continue under 4502 and tag 4487 and just hold then that could be red flags for lower continuation. But to get anything going long we would need to get back inside 25-32 and get over it so have to wait and see what we do here
Comment:
Failure here could bring another test of 08-02 where we could watch for continuation. Unless we hold here and get above 32.50 and hold
Comment:
So far got a flush under 25 but cant continue, we could hold this area today with possibly pop over 32.50 for a stop run. If that will be the case then will need to see what Globex will do tonight if it can continue holding 32-25 or not. Still plenty of time left for something to happen, being Monday have to manage if it doesn't.
Comment:
Last night Globex opened and drove back over 4508-02 and it acted as support. We did find more sellers at 4532-25 tests in RTH but failed to tag/break 08-02 which gave us a hold and a stop run over 32.50 towards the end of day. That becomes important area to watch going into tonight, if price comes back into 32.50-24 will we still have support there or is the bid gone to potentially trap more buyers from today over night. If we do hold over 32.50-25 or cant get back inside it then that will show stability and potential hold of this area for a move towards 48-43 into that Supply area above. We took some upper stops today and have lower ones lined up down towards 4487-79, will we have the selling to take it or do we rotate back up. I think we should have something left in the tank still but we have to wait and see.
Comment:
Looks like bid was gone after all, Globex opened gave a nice short back inside 32-25 area. We built up supply there through the night and then got the break. Once we chewed through stops through 19 it was a smooth move down to 4508-02. We are at T2 low and broke previous day low, have supply above, all set up to try and take lower stops today. Watch targets at 97-95 // 87-79 Would need to break/accept under for continuation, if happens 65-60 Untested Spike Base and could get into 40s-30s-20s if we have real selling pressure. But we watch level to level. For this thing to hold we would need to get a bounce back over 4508, consolidate and take out 4525 again.
Comment:
Under T2 low we could see margin call selling, careful trying to buy longs if we stay under
Comment:
We flushed 4508-02 and T2 low but stops at 97-95 held, Careful forcing continuation early unless we get continued selling from the open, if not then could still hold and get more consolidation over this area with a possible break later in the day. Areas to watch going into RTH are 4525-32 Key Resistance, 4508-02 Current Support
Comment:
IF we can hold under 4508-02, I would look for potential continuation under 87-79 later today if we built up here and get more selling to break that lower Support. We still have buyers front running the stops and already made a big move from last night, we can find some consolidation around here so need to give it time to set up, unless strong selling continues driving it lower
Comment:
IF we run out of selling here under 4500 and make a move over 02 watch out because it could rotate towards 25
Comment:
Yesterday we took out 4508-02 and hit our lower Support target at 87-79, we didn't get a full break and started holding above, as mentioned earlier careful looking for continuation if we don't hold under 4500 and careful if we run out of selling and get over 02 could give a move back towards 25 which we got. Now globex has been going sideways in our Key Resistance, IF market can't get over 4532 push through 4540 and hold above then there is a chance to rotate back down, we have already cleared the stops from 4508-02 and took out some of the buying from 4487-79 area. If we start rotating back down from here we can again target 4508-02 // 4487-79 and IF we break lower targets would be 4465-60 // 45-37 where we watch for any continuation. IF we hold head and fail to get back under 25-19 and continue lower then we could see a push over 32.50 at some point to head for 48-43 but dont forget we have supply trapped above and if they are coming out our buyers are lower, as mentioned Sunday this selling seems very mechanical we hit an area with buyers, hold then bounce once selling is done but that bounce doesnt last trapping more new longs on the way who dont get out or looking for bigger continuation higher. Careful to not get trapped for liquidity because market needs to start holding over 4530-40 areas for strength to be back in, until then we can see more balance or continuation lower.
Comment:
Under 4508-02 puts us under T2 low again and I know market has been giving nice buy the dip opportunities at Support after we run the stops but careful if we do get actual selling then we can get through some areas without any good long pops. Under 4508-02 we can see margins
Comment:
Careful trying to buy longs, watching for possible continuation towards lower targets mentioned today
Comment:
If 87-79 holds again then careful with continuation as we can spend time between that and 4508-02 again but would be surprised to see a move over 02-08 today as we have now trapped more supply over it. Of course we never know and have to trade what happens, will see how the day holds up around here or if we can get continuation at least towards 65-60 at some point